Monday, March 07, 2005

How to poll in the 50s without really trying

Looks like when it comes to changing Social Security, the Bush administration's policymaking modus operandi--what I call the "testing the waters" approach--failed. Or did it? Tom Toles puts it best in his cartoon in the Post today, but here's how the "testing the waters" approach works:

1. Bush presents a new proposal, such as overhauling Social Security or taking action against Iraq, but in an extremely vague and nondetailed way. It is crucial that few if any supporting documents that further detail the plan are available to the press or the public. The Bush team, though, has a good idea of what it wants to do, which is usually either reward its buddies or shrink the state.
2. With the proposal now being discussed at water coolers around the country, Karl Rove and his army of flying monkeys poll and/or focus group to figure out what details they will need to include in the plan to get public opinion on board. The fewer actual details, the better. They also figure out the best terms in which to describe the plan to secure public support.
3. The plan is presented with typical flawless message discipline and all the details needed to make people happy, regardless of how much it screws them in the end. "As part of our new proposal, we're going to give you $500 apiece! and eat your children."

What the White House didn't count on this time was the visceral way in which so many seniors (electoral powerhouse demographic!) would reject any proposal to fiddle with Social Security. They're wise, they're crotchety and they remember FDR. 'Nuff said.

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